Reporting of UCL 95 from Expostats

Hi Jerome,

Just wanted to enquire if there is a way to get UCL 95 from Expostats, currently use IHstats but prefer Expostats if this is available. I have found a previous article but could still not locate where the UCL was in any of the tools when assessing the data.


Hello Adrian,

Thanks for your interest in Expostats !

You can get UCL95 in expostats with all tools and the three parameters calculated ( 95th percentile, exceedance fraction and arithmetic mean).

In tool1 express, also called “simplified version (Tool1 Express (Tool1 Simplified))”. The “parameter estimate” tab will show all estimates along with a 90% credible/confidence interval. This means that the upper limit of these intervals is a 95% UCL.

For example with the default data example, the UCL95% on the 95th percentile is 1250

In the full version of Tool1, as in Tool2 and Tool3, you have more choice : you actually select the level of confidence in the input side of the tool (box called Credible interval probability). If you select 90 in this box, you’ll be shown a 90% confidence intervall, of which the upper value is the 95%UCL.

If ever you were interested in 70% UCLs, you would need to select 40% in that box.

Hope this helps

Best regards